Kolkata: Even as India grapples with an unpredictable monsoon, Bengal has emerged as an anomaly, recording near-normal rainfall despite a 30% deficit across eastern and northeastern India, a Climate Trends briefing has found.Monsoon 2026 began under the threat of a developing Super El Niño, prompting the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to forecast below-normal July rainfall. Instead, the monsoon strengthened. Between July 1 and 26, India received 238.2 mm against the normal 233.9 mm, while repeated heavy rain reduced the nationwide deficit from 40% at June-end to 16% by July 29.According to IMD data till July 30, Bengal received 703.5 mm against the normal 691.5 mm, a 2% surplus.Regional contrasts, however, remain stark. Alipurduar, Cooch Behar, Darjeeling, Jalpaiguri, Kalimpong and Malda recorded normal rainfall, while North Dinajpur had a 27% deficit. In Gangetic Bengal, East Midnapore recorded 42% excess rainfall, West Midnapore 45% and North 24 Parganas 28%. Kolkata received 695.8 mm against the normal 658.3 mm, a 6% surplus. Birbhum (-33%), Murshidabad (-32%), Purulia (-33%) and Nadia (-22%) remained deficient.Former IMD director general K J Ramesh said warming over the western Pacific offset El Niño’s rainfall-suppressing influence. Successive systems from the western Pacific entered the Bay of Bengal and re-intensified into depressions, invigorating the monsoon over eastern and central India. Enhanced western disturbances also transported moisture from the Arabian Sea.Akshay Deoras of the University of Reading said the monsoon appeared to be “driving on its own,” despite the absence of strongly favourable phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) or Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Warmer land and oceans, he said, allow favourable systems access to greater atmospheric moisture, increasing extreme-rainfall potential.Scientists said repeated low-pressure systems travelling through Myanmar into the North Bay of Bengal helped Bengal escape the wider regional deficit.Experts, however, warn that near-normal totals mask increasingly uneven rainfall—short, intense bursts separated by dry spells—raising risks of urban and river flooding, Himalayan landslides and crop stress. The Climate Trends briefing said rainfall totals alone can no longer define monsoon health as climate change reshapes when, where and how intensely rain falls.
