Pune: Rain and thunderstorm activity are set to return to parts of Maharashtra, including the rain-deficient Marathwada region, after a prolonged dry spell. A rain forecast was issued over the next few days, with yellow alerts in place for several districts.India Meteorological Department (IMD), however, said the activity should not be interpreted as a revival of widespread rainfall, as the showers are expected to remain highly localised.IMD’s Regional Meteorological Centre, Mumbai, has issued a five-day forecast for Sept 19 to 23, predicting thunderstorms, lightning, light to moderate rain and gusty winds over several districts. The probability of these conditions has been categorised as “very likely” in the districts covered by the forecast.In Marathwada, thunderstorms accompanied by lightning, light to moderate rain and gusty winds of 30-40 kmph are forecast in Nanded and Latur through most of the five-day period. Latur is expected to experience stronger gusts of 40-50 kmph from Sept 21 to 23, while Nanded could also see similar conditions.Beed and Hingoli are forecast to receive thunderstorms accompanied by lightning, light to moderate rain and gusty winds of 30-40 kmph from Sept 20 to 21, followed by light rain or thundershowers. Dharashiv is also likely to witness thunderstorms, lightning, light to moderate rain and gusty winds, with wind speeds expected to strengthen to 40-50 kmph from Sept 20.IMD scientist SD Sanap said the yellow alerts issued for the districts did not mean that the entire district would experience thunderstorms or associated rainfall.“These are localised events within districts and are quite common during the retreating phase of the monsoon. Heating during this period can trigger thunderstorm activity,” he said.Sanap said such activity had already been reported at isolated locations in Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra and Vidarbha.“It is not widespread. Even within a district, rainfall can be uneven; it may occur in one taluka or village while an adjoining area receives no rain,” he said.The current weather activity over Maharashtra is linked to a trough extending from Marathwada to the southeast Arabian Sea, across interior Karnataka and Kerala, at an altitude of about 5.8km above mean sea level. Sanap said the trough was bringing moisture into the region, while local heating was also contributing to thunderstorm development.A separate upper-air cyclonic circulation over the north Andaman Sea and adjoining areas persists and extends up to 5.8km above mean sea level. Under its influence, a low-pressure area was likely to form over the same region around Saturday evening. The system is expected to gradually intensify and move west-northwestwards towards the south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coasts over the next three to four days.Sanap, however, said the system would not immediately bring widespread rainfall to Maharashtra.“The low-pressure system will take time to move, and its influence over Maharashtra will be seen gradually. Right now, the trough and moisture incursion, along with local heating, are responsible for the thunderstorm activity,” he said.He said the current activity should not be described as a “rain revival”, as that would imply widespread rainfall.“At present, rainfall is highly localised and unevenly distributed. Parts of Pune city, for instance, may get thundershowers while other parts remain dry,” he said.For Pune district, IMD has forecast thunderstorms with lightning, light to moderate rain, and gusty winds of 30-40 kmph at isolated places from Sept 20 to 23. The Pune ghats are likely to experience thunderstorms accompanied by heavy rainfall and gusty winds of 40-50 kmph until Sept 23.Sanap said isolated thunderstorm activity could continue at different locations over the next five to seven days, with its eventual evolution depending on the movement of the developing system over the Bay of Bengal region.
