Pune: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast generally cloudy skies with light to moderate rainfall over the city till June 29, indicating that intermittent showers are likely over the coming days.The IMD’s latest local forecast rainfall in the city was expected to taper after June 29, with only light rain likely on June 30 and July 1 under partly cloudy skies that may turn generally cloudy towards afternoon or evening.Independent weather forecaster Abhijit Modak said the brief surge in monsoon activity witnessed after the onset had already weakened. He attributed the slowdown to the absence of a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal, which normally helps strengthen the westerly winds and sustain monsoon rainfall over western India.“The monsoon has advanced mainly through the Arabian Sea branch. However, the supporting systems over the Bay of Bengal have not developed yet. As a result, the stronger westerly flow needed for widespread, continuous rain has weakened,” Modak said.Pune is likely to continue witnessing passing showers, intermittent rain and isolated thunderstorms till around June 29, instead of a prolonged rainfall spell. “There are no indications of any major increase in rainfall intensity over Pune or western Maharashtra during the next four to five days. Localised thunderstorms can briefly produce heavy rain over a small area. But those events are short-lived and should not be mistaken for an active monsoon spell,” he said.According to Modak, a more active phase may begin around June 30 or July 1 if a low-pressure system forms over the Bay of Bengal. “If the system tracks across central India, it could strengthen the moist westerly winds and revive rainfall over the Western Ghats and adjoining regions, including Pune, during the first 10 days of July,” he said.He said the rainfall deficit of June was unlikely to be erased even if rainfall picked up next week. “The delay in the active spell means the June shortfall will largely remain. The focus now is on the first half of July, when a good spell of rain will be important for improving catchment inflows and reservoir storage levels,” Modak said.
