NEW DELHI: After a sharply deficient June, the southwest monsoon is set to make further progress across north and central India over the next 2–3 days, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting widespread rain and thunderstorms across several states on Thursday.While rainfall in the coming 7–10 days may help narrow the current nearly 40% national deficit, the IMD has cautioned that overall rainfall during July is likely to remain below normal across most parts of the country.
Monsoon advance, sowing outlook
According to the IMD, conditions are favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon into remaining parts of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Ladakh, along with entire Daman & Diu, Jammu & Kashmir, most parts of Haryana–Chandigarh–Delhi and Punjab, and some areas of Rajasthan in the next few days .IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the likely wet spell over the next week may support kharif sowing operations, especially in the monsoon core zone, rain-fed regions of central India where agriculture depends heavily on seasonal rainfall.A low-pressure area is likely to form over the northwest Bay of Bengal around Friday, which could aid rainfall across Odisha, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat during the first 10 days of July .
July rainfall, temperature outlook
The IMD said monthly rainfall over India during July is most likely to be below normal, against the long-period average of 280.4 mm. However, normal to above-normal rainfall is expected in parts of northwest and northeast India, east-central India and the eastern peninsular region.July is also expected to be warmer than usual, with above-normal temperatures likely at several places across the country.Mumbai Rains Live Updates: Heavy rain triggers massive traffic snarl on Western Express Highway, Santacruz East; waterlogging in Wadala
City-wise and regional alerts
Mumbai, Konkan and MaharashtraThe IMD has issued an Orange Alert for the Konkan region, including Mumbai, warning of heavy to very heavy persistent rainfall along the coast.
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely at many places over Konkan and Goa from July 2 to July 4.
- Extremely heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places.
- Central Maharashtra ghats are expected to receive intense rainfall, raising the risk of minor landslides
In Mumbai, intense monsoon showers have already caused waterlogging in areas such as Bandra Kurla Complex (BKC) and Wadala, traffic disruptions, tree falls and accidents. The IMD has warned that relief from heavy rain is unlikely in the immediate term.Citizens have been advised to avoid unnecessary travel and stay away from weak structures and heavily wooded areas.UttarakhandThe IMD has issued a heavy rainfall alert for Rudraprayag district till July 4, with the district administration urging residents to remain vigilant.
- 5–15 mm per hour rainfall is likely, accompanied by light thunderstorms
- Surface winds are expected to remain below 40 kmph
- Orange alerts are in place for Nainital, Dehradun, Haridwar, Pauri Garhwal and Udham Singh Nagar, where light to moderate rain and thunderstorms are forecast
Residents have been advised to avoid rivers, streams and landslide-prone zones and follow official advisories.Delhi-NCRThe monsoon is expected to cover Delhi and adjoining regions shortly. The IMD has forecast a generally cloudy sky with moderate rain and thunderstorms on Thursday.
- Yellow alert issued for gusty surface winds during afternoon and evening hours
- Isolated heavy rainfall is possible over Haryana–Chandigarh–Delhi region.
- Thunderstorms with gusts up to 40–50 kmph are likely.
Delhi recorded a minimum temperature of 28.6°C, close to the seasonal average, while air quality remained in the ‘moderate’ category with an AQI of 177.
Other major regions
- Central India: Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is likely over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha, with isolated heavy to very heavy rain at some places
- East India: Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar may see heavy rain with thunderstorms
- Northwest India: Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir are likely to receive widespread rainfall, with isolated very heavy showers
- South Peninsula: Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Lakshadweep may see widespread rainfall with strong surface winds
Overall IMD Signal
July is expected to begin with active monsoon conditions over large parts of central, western, eastern and northwest India. Thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds remain a key risk in several metros. Farmers in central India may benefit from improved rainfall distribution in the next 7–10 days.
June rainfall recap
India received 99.5 mm rainfall in June against a normal of 165.3 mm, registering a 39.8% deficit, the fifth-lowest June rainfall since 1901.Of the country’s 36 meteorological subdivisions, 24 recorded deficient rainfall, while three witnessed large deficiencies. No low-pressure systems formed during June, contributing to the shortfall.
