KOLKATA: The bypolls to three Rajya Sabha seats from West Bengal have highlighted the political impact of the split in the opposition Trinamool Congress (TMC), with the changed numbers in the state Assembly placing the BJP in a strong position to potentially win all three seats.The bypolls, scheduled for July 24, were necessitated by the resignations of former TMC Rajya Sabha members Sukhendu Sekhar Roy, Sushmita Dev and Prakash Chik Baraik, according to news agency PTI. The three leaders resigned from both the Rajya Sabha and the party in June after raising questions over the leadership following the TMC’s defeat in the Assembly elections.Roy and Baraik’s terms were due to continue until September 2029, while Dev’s tenure was set to run until April 2030.Following the 2026 Assembly elections, the BJP emerged as the dominant force in the 294-member House with 208 seats. The TMC secured 80 seats, while the Congress and the Aam Janata Unanyan Party (AJUP) won two seats each. The CPI(M) and the Indian Secular Front (ISF) secured one seat each.Subsequent resignations reduced the BJP’s strength to 207 and the AJP’s tally to one, leaving the ruling party with a comfortable majority and the opposition bloc with 85 legislators.Under normal circumstances, the opposition’s combined strength would have been enough to secure one Rajya Sabha seat, with the BJP expected to win the remaining two.However, the political equation changed significantly after the TMC split into rival camps led by former chief minister and party supremo Mamata Banerjee and Leader of Opposition Ritabrata Banerjee.According to the current alignment, around 65 MLAs are with the Ritabrata Banerjee camp, while nearly 15 legislators continue to support the Mamata Banerjee faction.The split has altered the arithmetic of the Rajya Sabha election.Under the electoral formula governing the three-seat bypoll, a candidate requires around 70 first-preference votes to secure election. With 207 MLAs, the BJP is in a position to distribute its votes among three candidates and potentially secure about 69 votes for each. Neither TMC faction, however, has the numbers required to elect a member on its own.“As things stand, the split in the opposition has converted what would normally have been a two-one contest into a situation where the BJP can realistically target all three seats,” a senior political analyst said.The bypolls carry significance beyond the immediate numbers. The election comes at a time when the rival TMC factions are engaged in a battle before the Election Commission over the party’s name, symbol and organisational control, with both camps claiming to represent the “real” Trinamool Congress.The dissident camp first demonstrated its strength when 58 of the TMC’s 80 MLAs backed Ritabrata Banerjee’s claim to the post of Leader of the Opposition, rejecting the nominee supported by the Mamata Banerjee faction. The rebel group now claims the support of around 65 legislators and has projected itself as the legitimate inheritor of the party’s political legacy.Leaders aligned with Mamata Banerjee sought to downplay the significance of a possible Rajya Sabha setback, arguing that the vacancies resulted from leaders abandoning the party after benefiting from its platform.“These seats belonged to the TMC and were won on the strength of the party in the last assembly election. A few individuals chose to desert the party after the results. The people of Bengal are watching who stood with them and who abandoned them at a difficult moment,” a senior leader aligned with the Mamata Banerjee faction said.The rebel camp, meanwhile, maintained that the resignations reflected deeper issues within the party.“The resignations are not isolated incidents. They are part of a larger political message. The leadership ignored repeated warnings from within the organisation, and the consequences became evident in the assembly election. The real issue is not the Rajya Sabha seats but why so many elected representatives no longer have faith in the present leadership,” a rebel faction leader said.The Mamata Banerjee camp also pointed out that the Assembly’s decision to provide separate seating arrangements for the two factions effectively acknowledged the political reality of the split.While there has been speculation in some political circles about the Ritabrata Banerjee faction fielding its own candidate, political observers believe support from parties such as the Congress and CPI(M) may be difficult to secure given the current political alignments.As a result, the possibility of a broader opposition-backed candidate is not considered a likely outcome.Such an arrangement could theoretically bring together around 70 votes, enough to make one seat competitive and potentially complicate the BJP’s plans. However, analysts believe the BJP continues to hold a significant advantage, particularly because of the possibility of cross-voting, a factor that has influenced Rajya Sabha elections in several states in recent years.With the nomination process yet to begin, the final shape of the contest remains uncertain. However, unless the rival opposition factions reach an understanding, the current Assembly arithmetic places the BJP in a strong position to turn what would normally be a two-to-one contest into a clean sweep.
