Pune: The India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s latest extended range forecast indicated a revival in rainfall after July 1, with the southwest monsoon likely to overcome the sluggish phase of the last few days and regain strength from early next month.The forecast said rainfall was likely to remain below normal over most parts of the country during the first week (June 25-July 1), except parts of south peninsular and northeast India — where it was expected to be normal to above normal. However, rainfall was likely to be normal to above normal across the country during the second week of the forecast (July 2-8), it said.The forecast comes at a time when the country continues to face a rainfall deficit. India received 47% below-normal rainfall during the week ending June 24, while cumulative monsoon rainfall since June 1 remained 42% below normal. Central India recorded the sharpest seasonal deficit at 59%.IMD scientist Sushma Nair explained the expected turnaround and said the monsoon flow was likely to remain weak for the next few days before strengthening. “The monsoonal flow is weak between June 26 and June 28-29, and there is nothing particularly favourable to push the monsoon pulse. Thereafter, the flow is expected to pick up strength and we expect rainfall activity to increase, accordingly,” she said.Nair said the revival was likely to begin along Maharashtra’s coast before extending inland if conditions remained favourable. “If everything aligns, then the interiors of Maharashtra will also receive rainfall,” she added.The IMD also said on Friday that conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of north Arabian Sea, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, remaining parts of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar, some parts of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand over the next three to four days.
